BULLIONS
Bullion counter may remain on sideways to a positive path. Gold prices gained on Friday as the steep fall in U.S. bond yields
continued, while conflicting signals on the Sino-U.S. trade war added to economic uncertainty. The metal has gained nearly 2%
so far this week, and is on track for its third straight weekly gain. Gold (Oct) can take support near 38000 and resistance near
38400 while silver (Sep) can take support near 43600 and resistance near 44300. China on Thursday vowed to counter the latest
$300 billion U.S. tariffs, but also called on the U.S. to meet it halfway on a potential trade deal. On Thursday, U.S. President
Donald Trump said he believed China wanted to make a trade deal, and that the trade conflict would be fairly short. Investors are
focused on the Federal Reserve's annual symposium next week. Traders see an about one-in-three chance of a 50 basis-point
rate cut by the Fed this September. The European Central Bank's (ECB) Olli Rehn on Thursday flagged the need for a significant
easing package in September. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by at least 10 basis points when it meets next
month.
ENERGY
Crude oil may trade with upside path as crude oil prices rose on Friday after two days of declines, buoyed following data showing
a rise in U.S. retail sales helped ease some concerns about a recession in the world's biggest economy. U.S. retail sales rose
0.7% in July as consumers bought a range of goods even as they cut back on motor vehicle purchases, according to data that
came a day after a key part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since June 2007 prompting a sell-off in
stocks and crude oil. The price of Brent is still up nearly 10% this year thanks to supply cuts led by the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+. In July, OPEC+ agreed to extend oil
output cuts until March 2020 to prop up prices. Crude oil may move towards 3980 while taking support near 3900. But the efforts
of OPEC+ have been outweighed by worries about the global economy amid the U.S.-China trade dispute and uncertainty over
Brexit, as well as rising U.S. stockpiles of crude and higher output of U.S. shale oil. Natural gas can recover towards 160 while
taking support near 156. U.S. natural gas futures jumped more than 5% on Thursday after the release of a storage report that
showed a much smaller-than-expected build last week.
BASH METALS
Base metals may trade on positive path. Copper may trade sideways as it can take support near 446 while taking resistance near
452. China's refined copper output rose 4.8% year-on-year to 801,000 tonnes in July, data released by the National Bureau of
Statistics showed on Friday. Copper prices were almost unchanged on Friday, amid conflicting messages about the ongoing trade
discussions between the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that U.S. and Chinese
negotiators were holding “productive” trade talks and expected them to meet in September. Meanwhile, China vowed to counter
the latest U.S. tariffs but called on the United States to meet it halfway on a potential trade deal. Prices of copper, seen as a gauge
of economic health, have been hurt by the prolonged trade war between the world’s two biggest economies and have fallen 3.6%
so far this year on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Zinc can recover 186 while taking support near 183. China July zinc output
was up 17.4% y/y at 512,000 tonnes. Lead may recover towards 156 while taking support near 152. China July lead output rose
13.2% y/y to 472,000 tonnes. Nickel may move upside towards 1160 while taking support near 1130. Aluminum may test 142
while taking support near 139. Alumina output was up 2.9% y/y but down 3% from June at 6.22 mln tonnes, the lowest monthly
total since December.
More will update soon!!
