Bullions
Bullion counter can continue its downside momentum due to interest rate hike in recent FOMC meeting coupled with
hawkish stance by fed along with stronger greenback. Local currency rupee can move in range of 63.5-65.5. Gold can
face resistance near $1285 in COMEX and 29600 in MCX while it has support near $1200 in COMEX and 28000 in MCX.
Silver has key support near 38000 in MCX and $16.00 in COMEX. And it has resistance near 40500 in MCX and $17.70
in COMEX. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in three months and stated that it would
begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year, signaling its confidence in a growing U.S. economy
and strengthening job market. In lifting its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of
1.00 percent to 1.25 percent and forecasting one more hike this year, the Fed seemed to largely brush off a recent run
of mixed economic data. The Fed has now raised rates four times as part of a normalization of monetary policy that
began in December 2015. The Fed also gave a first clear outline on its plan to reduce its $4.2 trillion portfolio of
Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of which were purchased in the wake of the 2007-2009
financial crisis and recession. India gold imports surged to nearly $5 billion from $3.85 billion in May. Year-on-year, the
import of the precious metal more than trebled, government data showed recently.
Energy
Crude oil prices may remain in red amid swelling inventories coupled with oversupply concerns. Overall crude oil can
trade in range of 2700-2950 in MCX. Oil slumped to six-month lows as an ongoing supply overhang weighed on
markets despite an OPEC-led effort to cut production and prop up prices. Prices for both benchmarks are down by
more than 13 percent since late May, when producers led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) extended a pledge to cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by an extra nine months until the end
of the first quarter of 2018. High exports and production from other countries, including Russia and the United States,
are also contributing to the ongoing glut. In the United States, which is not participating in any deal to hold back
production, oil output has risen over 10 percent over the past year to 9.3 million bpd. Natural gas may trade on volatile
path in range of 188-207 in MCX. The U.S. Energy Information Administration stated in its weekly report that natural
gas storage in the U.S. rose by 78 billion cubic feet in the week ended June 9, below forecasts for a build of 86 billion.
Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of
shifting outlooks on spring heating demand. Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures,
before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.
Base Metals
Base metals counter can witness some bounce back from lower levels on lower level buying however upside remain
capped on slowdown concerns. This week US PMI and home sales data can give further direction to the prices.
China's central bank left interest rates for open market operations unchanged last week, shrugging off increase in the
U.S. Federal Reserve's key policy rate. In May, copper imports were at the lowest level since October 2015. Copper
may move in range of 360-382 in MCX. Copper ore and concentrate imports, which are processed in China, stood at
1.15 million metric tons in May. China imported 390,000 metric tonnes of unwrought copper in May down 9% YoY,
however, imports rose 30% compared to April. Lead can trade in range of 130-140. Zinc can move in range of 157-
165. The global zinc market deepened its deficit to 92,400 tonnes in April from a revised deficit of 72,700 tonnes in
March, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). Meanwhile zinc can get support from bounce
in steel prices after China's government stated that it was beating its targets for capacity closure. Nickel prices may
remain weighed down due to signs of improving supply from Indonesia and easing worries over supply disruption
from Philippines. Nickel can move in range of 540-590 in MCX. Aluminum prices may trade in range of 118-126 in
MCX. Russian aluminium giant Rusal stated it plans to boost its production by 19 percent from 2016 levels to 4.4
million tonnes by 2021, amid rising global demand.
More will be update soon!!
